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'Six-month lag' in IVA statistics

- Friday, 19 June 2009

The number of people setting up an IVA or declaring bankruptcy tracks the unemployment rate with a lag time of between three and six months, it has been noted.

Accountancy firm Begbies Traynor has predicted that bankruptcy and IVA statistics will combine to show more than 125,000 personal insolvencies entered into by the end of 2009.

During 2010, meanwhile, the number of people declaring bankruptcy or setting up an IVA is predicted to rise further, to around 160,000.

But Joanne Wright, personal insolvency partner at the accountant, says: "We are finding a strong linkage between rising unemployment and rising levels of personal insolvency.

"We have also identified about a three to six-month time lag between someone losing their job and being forced into personal insolvency."

Based on recent unemployment statistics, she claims that the accountant's forecasted figures could ultimately prove to be conservative.

The comments follow figures from the Office for National Statistics which show more than a quarter of the population is now unemployed, while job vacancies continue to fall.ADNFCR-2258-ID-19226829-ADNFCR

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